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. europe right now is the safe haven. there's no negative news. by any means, they are not done with all that's going on over there. everything is focused here on the u.s. and the fiscal cliff, and until that is resolved, if it gets resolved, the traders are pulling back, volatility's high, and there's going to be very thin volume in the markets. it's not going to take much to get gold and silver back up. >> well, back to cindy quickly. if we have a deal, is it bullish for oil? she's already gone. i'll ask doreen, you're with us, aren't you? >> i am. volume, today, by the way, 37% below the three month average. could lead to some volatility, but we have not seen that, have we? >> we have not, but vix is up at 19, a little bit higher. the hope is to get more volume here, otherwise, you know, the fiscal cliff is killing everything. everything. these guys don't get it in washington. i don't know why. i hope they come to their senses soon. ashley: nobody knows why, but i'm tired of saying "fiscal cliff," i know that. thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> and cindy who ran off. t
20 years. so look, and a lot of this is down to problems, i guess, in europe, right? what is the outlook with what happens with global growth and what is happening? >> unsurprisingly, the volume of growth of trade are strongly correlated to the volume of growth. so growth slows down. trade slows down with a sort of multiple. that's the main reason. there may be other marginal reasons like, for instance, difficulties in trade finance. which is a sort of the aftermath of the financial crisis. but the reality is that the main export market of the senate, which is europe, is not doing well. the second export market is not doing that well. not to talk about japan. so this has a slowdown effect which reverb rates on the growth of emerging countries. >> and i know when you see what's happening in italy, will this, the political developments in italy that cause more instability and less reform there, are you concerned that will have a further destabilization impact? >> no. i mean, i think it comes at a time where we are starting to see an exit, a crisis exist by europe. whether th
, but a change. you were bullish in the u.s. saying i'm going to europe and other areas. why? >> well, maybe it's controversial when you look at the headlines in europe and asia and elsewhere in the world, but our thesis is predicated primarily on what we call price matters, which is essentially evaluations so when you look at the u.s. markets, and in our opinion, u.s. markets are still relatively attractively valued because they are, on our models, 20% below long term return trend sot force of reversion works in your favor, but if you look at efa, it's further below the long term trend, 35%-40% below the long term trend, and history coral lates to strong adjusted returns over the next decade. you know, that's the long term view op places like europe and asia. the shorter term view is that our tool set for tactical moves is don't fight the fed or the trend, be aware of the crowded extremes, and like in the u.s. where the fed is on a risk market side, that's true in the ecb, a huge change. the change in the ecb leadership and the embracing of american style qe is a big reason why we went from st
happy about what is happening in europe. german stocks are soaring. is it too late to get in? > > we saw the dax push up to a 52-week high last week. really the key here is safety. they are using that stock market as their safety gauge if they are trading over in europe. so, if the safety play continues to warrant being ultra- conservative, yeah, you are going to see that market continue to move upward. if traders want to take on a little bit more risk and spread to some of the other european sovereign-debt nations like spain or greece, then you are probably going to see that safety play back off a little bit. > there are always places to park money. good to have you on the show this morning. have a great trading day. > > you too. if you're not yet fully awake this monday, here's one thing to open your eyes: after years of higher and higher coffee prices to consumers, brazil, which produces a third of the world's coffee, may turn prices around. a record crop there last year is being followed by another bumper crop. our cover story takes a look at what it means for coffee futures and reta
, the financial crisis in europe is providing an opportunity for china. earlier this year, we heard from new york times reporter liz alderman on a chinese shipping company that is making waves in greece. > > how successful has this shipping company, known as cosco, been so far in greece? > > it's an interesting story. this chinese basically state- run shipping company came in here about three years ago in a $500 million deal that ever since then has been a model for the country, because what they did is they bought half of piraeus port, which is an ancient port in greece and one of the most important ports in the southern mediterranean. what they did was they basically took an operation that had been effectively lagging under greek ownership and completely turned it around. > > have the the greek people been welcoming of this? the chinese work way is much different from the european way, let's say. > > the chinese have an extremely efficient working practice. as one spokesman there put it to me, they basically run their business by showing that they work 24/7, that has actually rung alarm bells,
in seven months. although shanghai again trades lower even europe's pmi improves a touch in november. first up, we're one month away from the fiscal cliff and so far the white house and congressional republicans are still in disagreement over how to reduce the deficit and avoid a raft of tax hikes and spending cuts. yesterday our own jim cramer and maria bartiromo were on "meet the press" and cramer had a message for fellow panelists and father of the anti-tax pledge, grover norquist. >> most ceos are republican. they're on board. they're not on board with you. they're not on board with you because they fear your view. they think you do not favor going -- you favor going over the cliff. that's what they think. they think that you favor -- >> just for the record since we're on tv. that's silly if they think that they shouldn't be ceos. >> it doesn't really matter. that's what they think. >> i want you to walk me up to that moment. >> behind the record. i like that too. >> i'm stuck. like grover is stuck with this pledge he made everybody take which is that they have to go over the cliff beca
for the economy. and the transaction tax is being taken very seriously in europe and probably will happen there, even though the u.k. is kicking and screaming because they specialize in being the home of trading, whether trading in stocks or derivatives or anything else. they simply do not want that to be taxed. there are people in congress. i think wall street is now the number-one contributor to political campaigns. at least, it is in the running for number-one. i have been to washington many times and i'm involved with several groups that are trying to reform the business sector so that it can work, so that it can survive. it is very difficult because of the sheer amount of money that the finance sector in particular is pouring into lobbying and campaign contributions. it is very difficult. >> let's give a round of applause for lin. -- lynn. [applause] there is an opportunity for you to purchase and have the but signed. if you have court-further questions, she will be here signing books. thank you all and have a safe trip home. [captioning performed by national captioning institute] [caption
. europe has also been a blend of red and green as the ft names ecb chief the person of the year. we're going to kick off with breaking news. for that would, we go to david faber. >> news on best buy, in the news yesterday. the stock up sharply. what we can tell you right now is the board of directors of best buy, and its founder, richard schultz, has been trying to put together a group to essentially buy the company in a go private transaction, have extended the deadline in which he would need to come with a bid for best buy and created a window in fact that will begin on february 1st next year and end with the end of that month on february the 28th. giving schultz the opportunity to look at not just christmas sales, but the end of their fiscal year, which will end at best buy on the 31st of january. and that window, again, will be 28 days long giving him an opportunity to continue to try to cobble together a bid with private equity firms and those who might finance a potential bid for the company at whatever price that might come at, if it were in fact to come at all. no word in te
been a resurgence of developed markets, europe particularly, and investors who left that market, that's been a great place to be for the last few months. there's so much focus on fiscal cliff. i think that's very hard to do on a day to day basis. for multiasset portfolios, the rest of the world is a good story right now. >> because we're so dominated by these issues in washington. rick santelli, some enthusiasm going on in these markets today with the anticipation of perhaps a deal. do you buy into it? is that what you're seeing in chicago? >> first of all, there are many expecting a deal. down in chicago, we don't just hope for a deal, we hope for a reform-oriented deal. to just do a deal without tagging it to reform is just going to make more of the same at some future date. the treasury complex really, really unfazed by just about all of it. briefly, we're under a 158 yield. haven't been there since second week in november. after 815, 118,000 jobs, interest rates were never as high as they were before that number. that really set part of the stage for treasuries. >> and you guys do
you very much. a key session in japan overnight. >>> as we pivot our focus to europe, you see stocks addi adding .3%. consistent with the rally we've seen over the last several trading sessions and apparently having plenty to do with the possible resolution of u.s. fiscal talks. we'll have more in a little bit. the survey also helping to lift sentiment or keep it buoyant. look at the major borses. green in the harder hit regions. ftse mib, spain up better than 1%. consistent with the rally we saw yesterday. remarkable. the xetra dax adding .1%. for its part, up to close to 30% this year. the ftse 100 adding .3. the bond space, we'll look at that and talk later about the big trades that have helped some hedge funds, for example, when it comes to greek debt. for the time being, mario's comments this summer is have techively kept the bond gleelds a tight range since then six months or so now, this is going. and differentiation across the space where italy price rising, not the case for spain which is seeing its yield up to 5.3. and i know we haven't mentioned this in a while, but i want
encouraging news on europe's economic crisis: standard and poor's gave greece a better grade. it got upgraded to a "b-minus" from "selefti dveault" thanks d to reassurances that greece will stay in the eurozone. on wall street, the dow rose 115 points, the nasdaq gained almost 44, and the s&p added 16. our next guest says any reasonable fiscal cliff deal is better than no deal. he's robert doll, chief equity strategist and senior portfolio manager at nuveen asset management. >> susie: hi, bob. nice to see you again. >> thanks, susie. >> susie: so investors and traders really do seem to think that a deal is coming, like our previous guest, roger altman. is this rally all about hopes for a deal or something nore fundamental? >> it is about hope for a deal. the malaise and the lack of confidence and the uncertainty has been pervasive, as you well know, susie. that has held corporations back from doing things, from spending money, and some individuals as well. as roger said a few minutes ago, if we can clear the air with some sort of fiscal cliff deal, i think that does lift the opportunity for t
of this you focus on what happens internationally and china continues to recover. europe looks like it's stabilizing and we didn't change our strategy based on the news, just a little bit more of what you're doing. >> randy, anything change for you? >> no, not really. what we're watching is the parallels that occur now, where we stood with the fiscal cliff and where we stood in 1999 with the y2k situation. we borrowed a lot of growth in 1999 from 2000, and that led us to a recession. we're looking at the same thing now. we're seeing people have accelerated dividends, pre-payments, seeing a lot of companies that single proprietors are paying themselves this year in anticipation of higher rates. >> it's interesting that you point that out. it could be argued at the same time that we're delaying growth until next year because of the number of companies that have delayed hiring or capital expenditures because of the uncertainty about the fiscal cliff. >> yeah. well, uncertainty, unfortunately, is perhaps going to continue with this because the regulations are not going to go away there. ma
the actual global land scape is looking like from europe to here in the u.s.? >> well, i just spent two weeks in europe, and i don't think things are as bad in europe as a lot of people do. liz: why not? >> the politicians, the bankers and the bureaucrats are the same in europe as they are here. they don't want to lose their jobs, and they're going to continue to paper over this and try to buy time just like we did in our fiasco in '07, '08 and '09. david: david, on the other hand, some people would say what they're doing is stunting growth, raising tax rates, something that may stunt our growth as well. you say that this bull market is overbought right now. it's about to end. why and how sharp a correction are you expecting? >> well, we believe that the high of 12 weeks ago was probably the high for the whole recovery cycle the that started in march of '09. remember that the u.s. stock market was the only market in the world that made a new high this year. we were the best looking house on a very bad looking street. and we believe that the market is overvalued perhaps 20-30%, but we also bel
to allow the world to pass them by or be bound by the confines of a weak europe including germany appears to be on the brink of recession. the last quarter was fabulous, best in its history. stocks a half a point off its high. terrific 51% gain since i got behind it on august of 2011. it's not done. i think it has room to run. let's check in with bill mcdermott, the ceo of s.a.p. welcome back to "mad money." >> good to see you, jim. >> best third quarter in history. >> yes. >> how is it possible? >> we're focused on the nexus of force as you mentioned. when we put the strategy of the company together we were determined to double the addressable market. where's the world going? it's going mobile. do you know anyone that doesn't have a mobile device? >> no. and i don't want anything else frankly. >> exactly. there's more mobile devices in the world than toothbrushes. that was good enough for us to focus on mobile. >> are you still the largest buyer of some mobile devices? >> yes, we are. i don't know if we're the largest, but we're up there. we have done a lot of work with apple no doubt ab
morning. all right. coming up new at 10, germany's chancellor angela merkel says europe will have to work very hard to it maintain its current standard of living. at the top of the hour, find out what she's saying about welfare and here is another development from overseas. we brought you the story last week, french actor gerard depardu, he is leaving home, leaving france because of higher taxes and handed in his passport. now, the french prime minister has some choice words for mr. depardu. he's obviously in the happy with him and find out exactly what he said at ten o'clock eastern time this morning. time is money. 30 seconds, here is what else we've got for you, an in japan, again, a landslide win, so, what's the new prime minister going to do about the world's worst debt problem? print more money and stimulate more, too. build more infrastructure. will that work? we have our own resident japan expert. question, is jeff immelt's cozy relationship with the president costing general electric shareholders money? we will be discussing it. and i lost on friday when i questioned "the washing
states, 7% china, 5% india, negative one in europe. in that environment you want to own a portfolio of multinational companies with dividends, global exposure, it will provide as good of a return as anything else when you have bonds and cash paying so low. as long as you understand you're in the seven, 8% environment, portfolio stocks should be part of that. david: let's talk to a guy that says full speed ahead torpedoes. he thinks it will be better than this year was. saying people are confusing pickups for heart attacks in today's market to all these problems are going to seem like nothing when we come to the big gains of next year. you really think that will bear out, and how do you invest with that kinddof optimistic strategy? >> first of all what we have seen with investor sentiment is contradictory to what we've seen with consumer sentiment and business sentiment. when you see negative investor sentiment is not just in the retail side but also the institutional side creating a great potential opportunity for performance. secondly if you take a look at kicking the can down the
keeps rates unchanged. europe continues to hang in there economically. >> and nat gas gets a boost. the government finds exporting it is better than keeping it here at home. >> apple as we mentioned in the spotlight today, shares of the tech giant coming off their worst day in four years, sliding back into bear market territory. the one day loss erased nearly $35 billion in market cap. that chunk is bigger than 400 other s&p 500 companies. apple ceo tim cook talked to nbc's brian williams in our rock center exclusive. >> why can't you be a made in america company? >> you know, this i found, as a matter of fact, the engine in here is made in america. and not only are the engines in here made in america, but engines are made in america and are exported. the glass on this phone is made in kentucky. so we have been working for years on doing more and more in the united states, next year, we will do one of our existing mac lines in the united states. >> you can see the entire interview with tim cook tonight on rock center, that's 10:00 eastern time on your local nbc station, but for now
. so there is a similarity with what is happening in europe and what could happen here if we don't get our house in order. >> you talked about a single- minded focus, yet you are leaving with jobs undone. how do you feel about leaving at this particular point in time? >> we still have several weeks. we have laid out the plans and all these efforts i have been part of and other efforts as well. i still have some optimism that we will get this job done. one of the reasons i did not run again is the really wanted to focus these last two years. i knew if i was running, i would not be able to be in the hundreds of hours of negotiations i have been in. i believe many of the ideas we have generated will be part of any solution, whether it comes before the end of this year or early next year. i believe the work product we have produced will be part of the solution. >> you talked about no longer missing a 80% of family birthdays. what will you be doing then? >> i will be doing some speaking and doing some teaching. i have people starting to talk to me about other opportunities. i can assure you
prefer to expand in asia than here, or even europe that i talk to. the bountiful energy found in america, all of the natural gas and all that stuff, i can think of just three companies taking advantage of it. and that's talking about exporting it. the partnership sign. a 20-year agreement with total today, cqp is the symbol there. the real problem is in the exporting of the cheaper, cleaner fuel that is natural gas. not burning it here. or manufacturing with it. the industrial renaissance as i've been telling you, as much as it just breaks my heart, is stillborn. it's not getting better. retail's a real worry. i think we've fallen off a gift cliff. so few companies i know are doing well this holiday season. it is looking like a total bust. courtesy of sandy, incredibly warm weather and, of course, the fear engendered by the serious issue that is the fiscal cliff. i see that weakness and i'm not crazy about these stocks, in general. but i think that the conclusion of the housing crisis is upon us. which means there will be more money going to building and fixing up homes in 2013 than ther
deal or not. futures are up and the dow gained 100 yesterday. but there is room for skepticism. europe's grappling with the same question helped by some decent uk inflation data today. and a t-bill auction in spain. our road map begins with what appear to be significant progress in the debt negotiations overnight. a whose proposal looking to raise rates for those making more than $400,000 a year. but senator corker on squawk just poured a bucket of ice water on those hopes. >> whitney boosts her recommendations on citi, bank of america and discover financial. is that move by one of the more famous financial bears, a sign of a new era for banks? >> walmart is once again the target of a "new york times" investigation. but does the paper add anything new and can the stock outperform just as it did last time. >> private equity firm server said it will sell the firearms conglomerate. is private equity talking about guns in the country. >> futures moving higher on optimism. the white house republicans rising above partisanship, getting closer to striking a deal on the fiscal cliff. we have t
. the dollar has been lower. they have talked about the gains that we have been seeing over in europe. the euro top 50. that is very interesting, as well. this is the environment. it bodes very well. another winning day here on wall street. drug stocks, bank stocks doing well. the vix, the fear index, is to the downside. let's take a look at urban outfitters. taking a look at their quarterly sales. they are looking better than expected. under their umbrella is a name brand that a lot of the teenagers know very well. they had a good block friday. urban outfitters is up over two dollars. back to you. connell: as we get close to this fiscal cliff, both sides agreeing to get serious. we have heard the house speaker will update us on the talks within that hour from house floor. we will hear what speaker banner has to say. joining us right now are to congressman. would you vote if there was an agreement? >> i think it will be a balanced plan that will increase revenues by raising the rates on upper income families, but, at the same time, agreeing to substantial cuts. connell: the reason i started by
for 2012, up the russell 2000 up 12 percentage points, the s&p up 31, -- s&p up 11. but it's europe, europe actually ended up looking pretty darn good. germany up 30%. i mean, i look at that, and i say all of the fear that was out there including the euro stocks, 600 did unbelievably beautifully. and you say, my goodness, if you went toward the worst, most fearsome place, europe, you would have done way better than here in the u.s.. >> yeah, absolutely. well, it's like everything that happens in nature as well as the markets and the equity markets. when things get stretched too far one way, they will come back to a happy medium. we saw that in the equity markets this year. they were the best performing asset classes of all the places you could put your money, and it's not without knowing what's going on when you had unprecedented types of money flows coming from central banks around the globe, that money had to go somewhere. the u.s. market has performed very well. by the time we get done today, especially on the fiscal cliff talks, we're going to be up about 14% in the s&p 500. the leaders
before that, announcements to spur tit in europe p so buy into the feds, sell on it. people have been asked by playing inflation here. let me give you heavy volume in the pro share short treasury, tbt. twice the inverse of the treasury. got to be careful with this because it can only get results on a one-day basis. but a lot of people, maybe inflation will be an issue in 2013. >> sure, absolutely. >> it wasn't in 2012. but this trade is a big one. if it ever happens it is a huge trade. >> it is important to mention that that eta is twice the inverse. >> and it doesn't correlate on the long-term basis. only on daily basis. be careful. >> thanks, bob. appreciate it. >> this week i paid a visit to blackrock's trading floor. first time cnbc has been allowed access there, in fact. we got their outlook for 2013. blackrock president robert kapito oversees the firms as pepts here is what he said about the fiscal cliff and beyond. >> when you say they will take it to a crisis, does that mean we go over the fiscal cliff? >> there is a very high likelihood that it does or be at 11:59 on december
and melissa lee. questions remain about the internals. europe is reacting to a miss on german industrial production and some reports at least that some ecb members favored a rate cut yesterday. our road map will go like this. that puzzling jobs number beating virtually every wall street estimate as the labor department says sandy had only a minimal effect. is it true a clean number and what are conspiracy theorists saying. >>> a comment hastings made last july. what does it say about s.e.c. rules and whether they are out of date. >> mcdonald's will post same store sales on monday gets an upgrade to buy taking the forecast to a street high after surveying franchisees. we begin with november jobs number. 146,000 nonfarm jobs added last month above forecast of 80,000. october and september payrolls were revised lower. unemployment rate fell by 0.2 to 7.7. that's the lowest in four years. the dip occurring mostly because more people stopped looking for work and were not counted as unemployed. as for hurricane sandy, the labor department says the storm did not substantively impact the novembe
the slots at heathrow. those remain the crown jewel in terms of the airline business going over to europe. if you have access to those slots, it's a much easier way to become profitable or increase your profits over in europe. by the way, there are 31 daily flights between the uk and north america. we'll find out exactly what happens in terms of frequent flier redemption possibilities between delta and virgin atlantic. remember, virgin atlantic is not part of any global alliance, not part of the sky team alliance, although many wonder if that's going to change with some time. take a look at shares of delta. richard anderson has had a nice little move here. some people would say, listen, this is all about jet fuel as it has moderated. there's something else at play here. we'll be talking with richard anderson about this at 11:40, first on cnbc. we'll talk to him after the press conference announcing this deal. you don't want to miss what he has to say. this is a ceo, and we've talked about it several times, who is trying to take the steps that will help delta grow in the future. you look a
. as for the action in europe, really, the action focuses on italy where there's an impending political regime change. more on that in just a moment. the road map starts at the golden arches. mcdonald's blowing out expectations for november sales after the dismal drop in the month of october. hoping to fuel the rise, the bacon/onion/cheddar sandwich. >> there's one thing for certain, taxes on top earners are going up. >> turmoil in italy. berlusconi throws his hat in the ring. retail sales numbers out of china, hoping the economy is in fact on an upswing. >> apple, enthusiasm. jeffreys trimming its price target to 800 from 900, as apple shares do trade lower in the pre-market. we'll start with mcdonald's, posting better than expected november same-store sales, global comps up 2.4. u.s. same-store sales up 2.5, offered by breakfast offerings, including that cheddar/bacon/onion sandwich, as melissa mentioned. jim? people are saying the u.s. maybe is making a turn here. >> i find mcdonald's is levered to new products, levered to menu technology. they do invent things. my hat's off to janet. they had thi
, so how will he foot the bill? is a fat tax like the one that they have in europe the way to do it? a vat tax? a value added tax? is that story coming up next. how do traders using technical analysis streamline their process? at fidelity, we do it by merging two tools into one. combining your customized charts with leading-edge analysis tools from recognia so you can quily spot key trends and possible entry and exit points. we like this idea so much that we've applied for a patent. i'm colin beck of fidelity investments. our integrated technical analysis is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. >> when you start talking about an issue of treatment of mental illness, the mentally ill should they have access to guns? well, there is a rational response that most americans have somebody who is not thinking clearly should not have a gun in their hands. but how do you define and that codify that into law? that's a much trickier issue. david: that was scott rasmussen with the latest poll on gun control and do
to happen in europe about the future whether their taxes are going to go aboard not. the problem is if you are holding on to your cash because darrell issa fear you are losing money. is that -- can you get that message out? is there a way to address the people who are so fearful, who don't want to risk a lot of their money but to recognize it just to leave it stand is not helping them at all. >> i appreciate your question. this gets to the heart of the question. people getting so focus on the fiscal cliff that they are missing the big picture. the big picture we are delivered in one way or the other when you think of things in three frameworks the the supergood growth middle and growth dealing with fiscal the leveraging in a small amount and the downside of the fiscal cliff. the first category is not something we can really obtain. the other two are the more likely categories and they are the way to invest in those areas and the portfolio of getting returned in those areas -- [talking over each other] liz: they fan your portfolio. >> they need to give away the more distant up side. don't b
? >> not necessarily. we would stay with dividend payers. we would also dip our toe into europe into some very high-quality, multicountry stocks there. mostly on consumer discretionary stocks as well. >> george, we haven't forgotten you yet. scott, i have a question for you. just noticed today france and germany's stock markets hit 52-week highs. we're still wringing our hands over the debt crisis, and the equity markets are hitting new highs for the year. is it too late to get into those markets? >> i don't think so, bill, at all. all the european markets are up for the year except portugal, which is up slightly. even greece is up year to date. i don't think you're too late on that trade at all. in fact, i think, quite frankly, the structural changes that are happening in europe could produce growth for many years come. >> where are you putting money to work, george? >> the fiscal cliff is sort of the uncertainty du jour. people are always worried about next uncertainty. you need to blow past that and think about where the next good stocks going to be, how can i invest, how can i participate? taxe
of the former brish colonies. in europe the dax down about there about 35 points, around half a percent. and overnight in japan, the nikkei, the yen falling to a 20-month low. you have the nikkei up 1.5%. the nikkei -- yen versus the dollar as shinzo abe returns to office as japan's new prime minister, promising monetary and fiscal reforms. we have the shanghai composite there up about a quarter percent. >>> all right. in today's top stories, the u.s. is five days away from going over the fiscal cliff. president obama is cutting his holiday vacation short, returning to washington tomorrow to continue talks to try to avoid that automatic tax hike and spending cut combination. that's the same day that congress returns to town. before the president left town on friday, he suggested a stopgap measure to freeze tax rates for people making less than $250,000 a year and extend unemployment benefits. reports say white house staffers have been quietly working with senate democrats to come up with a plan to avoid the fiscal cliff, but little progress has been made. >>> a chinese ratings agency is
coming. >> all aboard. >> think about how often have we been clobbered by the mess in europe. every time things start to look less horrible across the atlantic, every time we begin to wonder it maybe, just maybe, the worst is finally past, there's some hideous headline out of greece or portugal or spain or italy that the comes back with a vengeance and the s&p gets bashed down by a torrent of selling. that's why it's so important to prepare yourself and your stocks for the next catastrophe around the corner. expected or unexpected, so that you can make money in any market, or at least lose less and not just when things are going smoothly. you have to build this stuff into what i call your world view. you have to assume that somewhere, sometime, something will go wrong. i'm not saying you should be a super skeptic perma-bear, not at all. over the course of my 31-plus years in this business i've seen the averages climb way too way, watched the market make people way too much money to ever be that cynical and close-minded. being negative all the time has not historically been a lucrative st
conference in just a few hours. as for europe, some green arrows, despite a miss in the eurozone in production this morning. >> the road map starts this morning with, of course, the fed. expectations for revamped bond buying program. what will the economic forecast say about next year and what to make of the "wall street journal" story that says academics are driving monetary policy at secret dinners in switzer land. >> more counteroffers in the debt negotiations. it looks like corporate taxes are part of the deductions. >> costco beats by 2 cents, better sales and better sales and membership fees. >> some more reports about apple tv today. the journal said it's designing a high -- new high-resolution set. microsoft trying to widen the list of retailers that will carry the surface tablet. the fed is going to wrap up its two-day meeting. a watch is on to see if ben bernanke and policy makers make a decision about the interest rates. later on, the chairman will hold a news conference, and of course, cnbc, will bring it to you live. coverage beginning at 2:00 p.m. eastern. jim, a lo
, businesses started cutting back aggressively. and i think that was partly because of concern over europe. conference over china. businesses are running very, very clean right now. i do think there's capacity. >> and maybe that business investment will help the consumer who will feel the pinch of higher taxes? >> that's the hope ultimately is that you get that multiplier. businesses and corporations have been doing well, they have cash on the balance sheets and they start lending. i think one of the other crucial components is credit creation. it can't just come from large corporations. it has to come from medium and small bess. >>> coming up, bob doll gives us his outlook for the fed. linking rates to the unemployment rate. then at 8:00 eastern, a cnbc exclusive, david tepper, one of the world's top performing hedge fund managers will give us some of his investing wisdom and what will be a can't miss "squawk box" interview coming right back. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world. nespresso. where i never have to compromise on anything. ♪ where just one touch creates the perf
not too concerned. futures up 21 points. decent data out of europe, we will talk about in a minute what a day for the asian markets again. also coming up. our road map begins at andrews air force base where the president arrives in a couple of hours, cutting his hawaiian vacation short to address the fiscal cliff s there really any hope in the last attempt? does the market fade if there's no news tomorrow night? >> the nikkei continues its 21-month run. how much is the boj willing to put up with? >> looking a at potential strike in the nation's port on the east and southern coast, the first since '77 that could cost retailers and importers billions. businesses now asking its white house to get involved. >>> you can now get the nokia lumia for free, depending on the service provider contract you sign s that standard practice or a sign the company's flagship phone suspect selling well? >>> we will start off with news about the fiscal cliff. congress returning to capitol hill today to try to get a deal done on the cliff before the deadline on december 31st. senate majority leader harry rei
europe. we have not had a lot of problees. seems like the greeks are kind to getting things. >> the last few days, europe markets have been pretty strong. as you said, a sleeping giant. cheryl: i do not want to see anything change. it has been nice. gentlemen, thank you. i appreciate it. great floor show today. uncertainty seems to be the norm in washington these days. last year you have the debt ceiling convey. congress had trouble putting together a deal. now the u.s. may be heading for the fiscal cliff. what does that mean for you and your investments? we have the jobs report today for a brief moment. we weren't worried about the fiscal cliff. now, we are back. what do you make of it? >> the jobs report was okay. there are some signs of very modest improvement in jobs. the good news is we have not really lost momentum and i will put that in the victory column. from a very short-term perspective, it is the fiscal cliff that is on everyone's mind. consumer sentiment is starting to decline. that suggested everyone seems to be focused on the fiscal cliff. when you are focused on uncertain
things worse. europe is doing it, southern europe. it keeps raising. the economy contracts even more. about to go in recession. japan raising taxes. why in the world we would apply that poison to ourselves. lori: that is the ultimatum from the white house, as you know. because of the president's reelection they have the leverage. so are the republicans going to have any choice but to cave especially on the issue of raising taxes for higher-income americans? >> well, there are small business owners. 63 percent, and people who create capitol, invest capital. we have seen in europe and france especially, that kind of thing does not work. he does not have a mandate to hurt the economy which is the way the republicans should phrase this thing. why harm the economy now. lori: edges of the economy fall off the cliff to iraq or raising the tax on the wealthy. >> with the republicans should do, making the point they're raising taxes is a bad thing to do, let's postpone this bank. better to do that than to give poison to the patient now. our economy is starting to slow again. give people pause
right after the open. as for the action in europe, taking its cues from the united states. we'll see a big rally in china extending one of its biggest rallies in three years. we have a mixed bag in europe with italy up by about .2 of 1%. >> we'll do our best to keep focused on the business day. we'll be following the tragic shooting in connecticut, of course. the new york stock exchange will hold a moment of silence to honor the victims in the next few moments, and we'll be looking at the president's call for meaningful action and the politics of gun control. >> let's get to a road map for this morning. it starts with apple. under pressure once again. even dipping below $500 a share at some point this morning. shares will remain range bound near term. iphone 5 sales and cannibalization among the region. >> other concessions from the gop, the speaker proposing tax hikes for millionaires. could this be the tipping point. moving the talks beyond deadlock. >> a big week for earnings. yes, earnings. fedex, research in motion among the companies reporting. so finally maybe we'll be talking
fractionally. other news out of europe, debt tieback for from an day to receive additional buyback offers. those would be at deeply discounted prices and that would help lower the country's debt lead. >>> in asia, stocks touched a 16-month high and closed mostly higher on the session with good gains, as you can see, with the kospi up the most, 1.5 points. >> strong nebs out of china which suggest maybe the economy is rebounding more than expected. >> the exports. >> yeah. >> among the catalyst in asia trading today, economic stats out of china. export growths slowed sharply to 2.9% in december. that news j underscores the global headwinds dragging on the economy. but the chinese economy is showing solid signs of a pick up in domestic activity. industrial output was stronger than expected. the country has been saying for years it needs to shift a little bit from the export model the internal consumption. let their middle class grow and not be nearly as dependent on exports. and china's oil demand in november surpassed 10 million barrels per day for the first time ever. the country's crude
of the year. we have so much uncertainty in washington. we do have slowing economies in europe and in the u.s. >> right. david, what do you say right now? break the tie for us. >> break the tie. in the near term, there's an epic tug of war between extremely aggressive monetary easing and just total disdain for what they're doing in washington on tax and regulatory policy. in the near term, the fiscal cliff prevails. in the longer term, the fed will prevail. there's so much mistrust on stocks that i think that still can be a positive catalyst for stocks relative to traditional bonds over the next 12 months. >> i'm going to push back a little bit on that. >> i'm going to break the tie in ralph's favor. >> david, i want to push back a little bit on that. in terms of -- like, is the fed really that much of a factor these days now in terms of keeping the market afloat? >> absolutely. >> it's not losing its bang for its buck? >> it's not as powerful as it was in the fall of 2008 or even 2010, but when you consider that, u.s., long bonds, 1.5%. short-term interest rates, zero. negative on an infla
last time you liked europe. what about here in the united states? what would you buy here? >> well, i wouldn't buy anything if i haven't bought it already. i would sit around and wait. you've got she nan nanigans goi in washington. there are 535 people who have to think i want to keep my job. they'll decide to rise above. this is all going to be wonderful. in the meantime, if you're trying to figure out which way to go, i have traders out here who will tell you every day very difficult thing to do. >> isn't that the case. for sure. >> sandy, weigh in here. what would you be doing? >> actually i take a little bit different view. this fiscal cliff is a grander issue than just the united states. the drag in the u.s. is a big import to the rest of the world. stock markets are supposed to be leading economic indicators. if you look at the markets around the world from the last several weeks to months, the markets seem to be indicating just the opposite. they seem to be indicating that a deal will get done. what kind of deal whether it's one stage or two stage, nobody knows. but the fact of
done very good so far. >> that's interesting, because europe has taken a back seat to many soft other issues. you still worried about europe? should that be part of our investment idea portfolio? >> as david said, that's improved dramatically, too, and it's really taken a back seat, so i would say, as david said, that some type of deal is priced into the market. >> let's do it this way. your single best idea to invest in, and then i'll get yours. >> financials, not necessarily the big banks but bank of new york melon. >> why? >> a processing bank, because it's the cheapest sector. a lot of momentum going for it right now. >> even the low rate that hurt their bottom line because it's tough to lend and borrow at such low rates. >> keep in mind, bank of new york melon, they are a processing bank so lending is not that big a deal to them. >> profit, production and personal income are the three things to watch, the three ps. >> what's your single best? >> our single best idea is apple computers. >> still? >> yes, and johnson & johnson? >> they are barbell. >> down 9 out of the last 11 week
is going to be, fiscal cliff going into the end of the year, we'll start to focus on europe and japan printing money over there. we'll get back into the macroeconomic horizons and see how it goes. but yeah. i think there's been some outflows in certain sectors, risk is on here. >> all right. bill nichols how are you playing this waiting game right now? >> i think one of the real interesting sectors one of the guests mentioned is the action in financials. you look at bank america and you haven't seen any real participation in the financial sector for four or five years. that's one to keep an eye on. you may see a meaningful move. that could be good for the market. >> you don't think it's too late -- >> -- next year in terms of a tax increase. >> bank of america is the best performing this year. it's not too late to get into that? you think there's more to come? >> look at the short-term move and it looks good. look at a five or six year chart and it's a different story. looks like you've got more room on the upside. >> rick santelli, jump in here. what are you seeing in chicago the mov
, china, europe, whatever, the s&p 500 up 12.1% year to date. that is a good year. that is an optimistic year. why is that? >> it seems like we're forgetting about that, doesn't it? with all this talk about what's happening going forward and concern about corporate growth. and truly, we're concerned about corporate growth as well because there really hasn't been that long-term information from our government, from our policyholde policyholders, no economic policy in real investment in assets that we've seen. that's going to be a problem going forward, not to mention the global slowdown, and we're hitting the top of corporate profits now. >> so you don't agree with this. you're turning bearish. >> not bearish in a sense of going forward intermittently. we think that most likely, we're going to see some growth hitting in the second quarter of next year. until we get through this fiscal cliff nonsense, until we see some growth coming out of china and europe, i think that -- >> china i think is showing growth. europe may not show growth in my lifetime, but they're going to be bailed out. do
. that was growth of the growth off the growth. melissa: right. >> the lesson to be learned from europe isn't to be careful on cutting. it is to be careful on hike being, on hiking taxes. the beast is the government, in my opinion here. the beast is the government. you don't reward the beast by giving it more food, more dollars. that's what i near is going on here. melissa: yeah. lori: the president's desire to get rid of the debt ceiling limit at all, what kind of ramifications, what could happen? are we looking at another debt downgrade? a second downgrade could be really, really -- >> here is what i agree with him. this charade we go through every few months on the debt limit. republican presidents, democratic presidents, mark zandi from moody's it does damage our credibility. i agree to something like that. i didn't like fiat saying i will handle the debt thing. that would be like letting me run loose in a best buy electronics store. not a good idea. i understand where he is coming from. we do have a find a way we can, you know, not hold our entire government hostage to these debt ceili
or pertain to europe or all of it? >> it pertains it a variety of things. first of all, ingenuity of u.s. corporations is outstanding. they got lean, mean and made money. profit margins went it a record high. now they are under pressure. so i'm not sure if we can keep that same level of high level profit margins. i think have you wild cards in europe and certainly we are very reminiscent of the debt ceiling fiasco we saw last year. >> yes, yes. all right, thank you, arthur. dear friend. >> my pleasure. >>> now to brian with the market flash. bri some. >> shares of aig up about 3%. their asian interest aia, basically going to get about 6 billion plus in terms of net on that deal so they will be out of that position. if you put into account, being out of their commit many to the u.s. government now putting cash in the bank to the tune of 6 to $6.5 billion, aig continues to look stronger every single day. up about 50% year to date. back to you. >> thank pup next half hour. bonds, are they in a bubble ready to burst? many thought it would happen this year, and they were wrong. we will disc
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